The whole thing was bound to blow up - even without the whole Ukraine-thing and without the Federal Constitutional Court dismissing their financial shell game.
The FDP is unfortunately the only party (well, if you don’t count the AfD…) that has publicly acknowledged that the time to finance social experiments is over.
What surplus money there is (or seems to be) will quickly run out in 2025 and 2026, when the demographic time-bomb of the boomers retiring will start to detonate.
But people want none of that. They want to continue living in la-la land.
Slivovitza on a Friday night and internet aint your friends Mihajlo. Don’t message x-girlfriends too!
AfD wants massive tax cuts (among them a 7% VAT reduction) and increased pension levels. And a balanced budget 
Agree largely with rest of your post.
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If this projection holds, CDU/CSU could govern with either SPD or Greens in a two-party coalition. That wouldn’t be so bad as opposition would not be exclusive to the Russia parties.
We don’t need more extremists, Mike. For instance neither AfD nor Kickl are good news for the rest of Europe. Maybe you should know that.
After Trump has made his intentions quite clear ( see the Greenland and Canada annexations plans) it is obvious he’s a deranged individual no better than Putin et. co.
He’s also aided by people like Musk, who, from “genius” status has suffered mental transformations to the current total nutcase status who mingles with politics everywhere. This duo will succeed, for instance, to produce a divorce between UK and USA, which is quite a historical “accomplishment”…
Hi, as you know, I find you a very constructive commentator. And we can define interests differently. For me, the German greens and Scholz in particular are the symbiosis of everything that is not a good news for me (again, I am not Serbian but follow it closely what is going on there, as I have a lot of interests there). So do I put interests of Europe (who could not care less about my interests) or myself first?
So yes, full support to AfD.
What’s the issue with Greenland? If people want to be independent, this is their right, and if they get US support for this, what is the problem?
On ‘division’ of the UK and the US, oh well, music to my ears…
Genuine question, as I am not deep into German politics. Lets assume this polling holds, hopefully. Who would then be a more natural ally of the CDU/CSU? As much as I dislike Scholz, it seems to me that a CDU/CSU and SPD coalition is actually a bit more “natural” and likely to hold. Or I’m missing something?
Mihajlo, Fukuyama was, unfortunately, wrong with his The End of History. We’re now at a crossroad where powers are trying to carve out spheres of influence. Where I personally stand is that the sphere of the русский мир is something I would really really like to avoid. For the sake my abused parents and grandparents and for the sake of my children. I utterly and absolutely fail to comprehend the Western useful idiots who are in a pathologic state of adoration of this miserable, poor backwater swamp that is russia.
If powers are now carving out spheres of influence, Id much prefer to be in the hipster, LGBTQ lovin’ and morally corrupt West than in the beautiful russian mir, thank you very much. If someone gets a hard on when seeing a photo of Saint Basil in moscow, he is absolutely free to go there and stay there.
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Yes. It doesn’t make sense. There’s quite the amount of economic lunacy in there. Even if you ignore the „other“ lunacies for a brief moment.
The problem is that the „Grand Coalition“ wouldn’t get anything done other than kicking the can down the road four more years.
But likely, it doesn’t matter anymore.
This is where it gets complicated. And why I really would like the CDU to be able to choose between the two instead of being dependent on only one option.
In short, SPD is a better fit when it comes to immigration as their clientele is rather socially conservative and fears change. But in my view very challenging to have any chance to agree to sensible structural reforms of social security, tax and regulation. Foreign policy also tough, many Russia friends in SPD.
The Greens are clearly a better fit in foreign policy and defense. Beyond that it is complicated. The Greens are not that homogenous. There is a moderate wing (Habeck is part of that as well as the state level government guys from the Southwest) that has sensible and pragmatic views on immigration and economics (Habeck terrible on the latter though). But then there is a powerful left wing with its power center in Lower Saxony and around Trittin who is still very powerful despite being out of any official role. With this wing, a tougher immigration policy as well as business-friendly reform will be difficult to achieve.
The Greens are almost hated among many conservative voters - a bit of an over-emotional “anti-woke” thing. Merz tried to play it smart by saying he will not form a coalition “with these Greens” leaving the door open if there was compromise on policy. Unfortunately, the narcissistic prime minister of Bavaria and head of CSU is applying hard pressure to exclude any coalition with the Greens - which is just stupid.
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Greenland has a oil, metals, rare earth minerals.
The US needs those because China may not sell them any at some point.
China has secured access to most of Africa‘s resources. Can’t let that happen again.
Apparently, it has been on a wish-list for a long time.
Ah, yes, I just read last night about the bickering of Baerbock and Scholz on Ukraine funding. She might be an imbecile, but seems to have the right instincts. So fingers crossed for a CDU/CSU and Greens coalition then?
That would be my preference given what realistically the seats will be like. I am even considering voting green in case their polling numbers drop to a level where this option would look shaky.
The problem is also that the number of total seats will depend on whether BSW, FDP and Left make it into the Bundestag.
You know, I think in parts of Europe we’re at a place where I’d prefer coalitions that “wouldn’t get anything done” than do something and go full Orban/Fico berserk.
In case of Germany, the time to do nothing has run out. A long time ago.
The next government will either be able to fix things or Germany will descend into economic irrelevance (it’s political irrelevance was always a given).
All the while it will get increasingly incompetent and corrupt, cleptocratic governments with ever shorter half-lives (Greek/Italian style).
Btw, in Germany you should really come to terms that the Southern part of Europe is doing pretty well given where things were 5 or 10 years ago. Mitsotakis has done incredible things in Greece and has been PM since 2019 and Meloni, love her or hate her, doesn’t really have much of a political challenge and has been PM since 2022. Corrupt and cleptocratic governments is really not even close to where these countries are today.
OT: Slovakia is doing much better than Hungary atm, probably started from slightly different places…don’t know. This happened after 20 years of Orban…definitely not a half-live government.
Partly true. Greece is doing OK. Italy pays for very meagre GDP growth with insane budget deficits (7.2% in 2023, 4% in 2024 at total debt of 134%) that it would never be able to afford were the ECB not controlling spreads.
I remember when the early AfD was mainly about this issue.
I was referring to the “corrupt, cleptocratic governments with ever shorter half-lives”, which was the case for the affectionately known PIIGS, but is not longer the case. Italy indeed has and has always had a particularly unhealthy game with budget deficits, something that will take a very long succession of government to reign in, if ever.
