Just of of curiosity, how does that work?
It was supposed to be a level 5 cynical remark.
The FOCUS article is interesting, by the way. This very morning, they still reported that German gas and coal capacity had not been running on full capacity, at least yesterday where prices were even higher.
Anyway, I am a bit torn on this topic. For one, it is clear that the German system has become vulnerable, expensive and not even good in terms of CO2 emissions. On the other hand, there is so much partisan hype now from the pro and anti camps now, and both a very generous with claims. The price spikes in the last days are extraordinary and far far away from the average. But the risks to supply security are there and not going away.
What I gather is that the potential energy production has been much reduced because then the CO2 goals can not be kept. Meaning we could and we should but we can´t so we won´t.
By the way the price for a megawatt topped 900€ for a while.
1 hour to be precise.
Of the 8399 hours in 2024 to date in the German power market, 447 in fact had a price below 0. The average price of all hours this year was 79.8 EUR/MWh.
I am not saying all is good - it is not - but some perspective is appropriate.
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However you don’t see actions taken, like shutting down energy intensive industries. That in itself lessens the symptoms but it doesn’t remove the problem.
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As I said, things are not great but they need sober analysis. The hysteria of the last two days is not that.
As far as industry is concerned, it is totally possible to buy electricity in ways that do not expose you to the spot prices but are more certain. This is up to the company to decide. If you buy spot and are sane, you will be adjusting load to prices.
It may well be that certain industries cannot compete globally with electricity cost like we see them in Germany - but that is a somewhat different problem and not related so much to the Dunkelflaute phenomena.
If you read some reports it was only due to the fast action (as mentioned) of shutting down factories that brought the price down. It seems that some of these factories, especially in the former DDR, are not going to open again.
The knock on effect is that in these already structural weak areas unemployment is set to rise even more, meaning more voters will vote AdF.
There are many industrials that are able to adjust their load (maybe they can switch to alternative fuels or stop processes) and in fact sell the option to be regulated down to the grid operators for precisely the need to balance the grid. It is called ancillary services and is a good revenue source.
Yeah, you read about them or listen on the news about how they are “switching production to renewables” after a multi billion Euro aid packet from the government and that it is the future and this future from now on is going to be biiiiiight and nice… Then the next week they are in the news again because they are going to fire 11000 employees, with one factory closing and three others being sent to China.
Looking at you ThyssenKrupp.
You totally misunderstood my post.
Possible.
So, that’s the market working. There might be peaks in prices, but lights are still on. The system works.
A system failure looks like millions of people without electricity, people freezing to death, problems in food supply, hospitals in trouble, etc.
I would expect a Dunkelflaute to begin with brownouts, not directly blackouts but a reduction of power in the grid which leads to computers going into shutdown when the UPS´s trigger, electric motors running hot etc. The next escalation are rolling brownouts, where regions get reduced power, after that the blackouts start.
What we are seeing here is the first shots so to speak, warning signs of things to come I would say.
According to Fokus uncontrolled brownouts will be avoided, rolling brownouts are the means of choice to protect the rest of the grid. But that still causes problems… Industry will be shut off. Cooling gets interrupted. And of course home devices may not survive the manoeuvre. Initially this may be limited to 6-7pm or some such, but of course it will be gradually extended.
We have had two “Dunkelflaute” events now this winter. They have been managed with high prices, but no forced shutdowns as far as I can see. We will see how the next one will look, but so far your hindsight “expecation” has not been accurate by a long shot.
It’s interesting to read news from around the world.
Texas 2021 power crisis: people literally dies and huge economic loses. Life goes on, investments keep flowing. No big deal.
Germany Dunkelflaute 2024: prices go up. Slammer goes full apocalypse with factories closing, jobs going to China, AfD rising. Probably nothing happens.
Certainly, the US approach skews psychopath. Not endorsing that path.
Back to Germany, it took a catastrophic event in Japan to end nuclear. Maybe another catastrophic event, like Texas 2021 but locally, is need to rekindle the love of nuclear. Until then, worries and words will not matter much.
Au contraire Axa. Companies are shutting shop and are leaving Germany for greener pastures in China and elsewhere as long as it is not in Germany.
The AfD is on a high, surpassing SPD to become second after CDU… And why? Migrations issues, both perceived and real. Loss of jobs, unaffordable cost of living for the lower strata in society and a middle class sliding down a very slippery slope.
So yeah, all the Persil in the world is not going to brighten this up.
Of coure it is, the underlying cause is the same: the move away from nuclear and so-called greenyfying. Without proper planning, without adequate build-up of replacement production, without sufficient adaptation of grid capacity.
And with complete disregard of those who named the problems for years. Instead they got maligned for years and years.
The result is, among others, the inability of operating large batteries, even though they’d help mitigate the problems.
http://archive.today/yyIDP