When the DM was switched over to the EUR, one DM became 0.50 EUR. So had they had EUR back in the 1990s, one EUR would have been 1.80CHF.
Today it's somewhere between parity and 1.10.
Of course it's highly unprofessional to just extraoplate trends without looking at the causes behind them, but if we do just that, the EUR will be 60 Rappen in 2050.
I walked into the Migros Bank by Limmatplatz a couple of years back, signed up for an easy credit and walked out with 40K in 1000CHF notes. Nobody batted an eyelid. I even had to actually ask for an envelope, and the lady said "what? you want them in an envelope?".
Most people around Limmatplatz obviously don't mind walking around with small change in hand.
Once I wanted some Thai Baht as an office gift for a departing (graduating) student that was about to celebrate by backpacking around Asia. I went in to order the currency expecting to have to return the next day to pick it up. To my surprise the cashier reached into a drawer, took out a stack and started counting them out. Admittedly I was in the downtown UBS branch, but this is Switzerland where cash is king, even the foreign kind.
Current rate is because EUR QE and negative rates not because CHF is a strong economy. It is not. It is a bank heaven where you store your cash and this supports lots of cash inflows.
Effectively the future of the EUR will be determined by the ECB.
It doesn't really matter if there are a few. AFAIK the only major one that's at least more or less flat (with huge movements in between) is the JPY. The €, the topic, is on a clear downward path longer term, as are all its (the ECU's) components (predecessors).
For example although EUR had depreciated a lot vs CHF keeping the money in EUR still was more beneficial since you could get good interest rates (up to 2015) and also the eurozone is a huge area where life is very nice and you can spend your money in various places and city from very hot areas (like Spain) to very cold like Austria. Still it was better to keep your money in EUR (not anymore ofcourse).
As always in Switzerland, everything moves slowly. Abandoning the negotiations with the EU must have a price for Switzerland.
a) If nothing changes more barriers to trade and collaboration with the EU will appear. This translates to a higher cost of doing business here, etc.
b) If a treaty is negotiated EU must have the upper hand. In the end, it is 27 countries protecting their interest vs one. With every day it passes by the EU's hand gets stronger and stronger.
This reality was not existing in 2018, 2019, 2020 when everyone said that parity with EUR is a matter of a few years.
Currently, as things stand we got all this news in 2021 > increase of the minimum tax rate to 15% worldwide, sharing the profits with the countries that generate the sales, the abandoning of the EU negotiations, 3rd world status in the Horizon research project, increases of the cost of energy, the double certification of medical devices (EU and CH) >>> all this is negative news for the Swiss economy. Unless a miracle takes place it is a high chance to see EUR/CHF at 1.20 pretty soon.
Another Ruble exodus, for example, will put pressure on the franc.
And there is nothing the central bank can do about it.
In 2021 the Irish got a couple of words changed in the final text of the treaty that enabled them to happily approve it in their parliament without any significant opposition and the follow up act introducing the tax rate there after...
I’m sure bright sparks in other governments around the world won’t take too long in figuring out the loop holes either.
It is not the first time that negotiations have broken between the EU and CH and it will not be the last time... there will be other negotiations and the Swiss are pretty good at figuring out what is in their best interests.
In my 30 years involved in the financial services area, traders have seen an awful lot of miracles and lost a lot of money in the process. And they do so because, like you, they assume that the parties involved will sit back and let it happen and that rarely happens.
So yes the rate may go up or it might just as easily go down, only time will tell. Nobody has a track record in predicting these things.
I was commissioned by the Wall Street Journal to write a feature on Switzerland soon after the 2008 financial crash. It was rejected as being too positive, though totally factually correct. They, like you, wanted to see the fall of Switzerland.
(I was paid even if it was not published - with a dollar check. Now there’s a country with serious financial and political questions hanging over it.)
€1.40 to the franc, as it was a few years ago, would help the Swiss economy no end. Again, the fall of the euro (or the rise of the franc depending which side of the fence you sit) was greeted with wailing and gnashing of teeth. But as we see, life went on.
The miracle that is needed is for the EU - as we now watch Polexit on the horizon...
Quite easy too when we bought this house in 2007- 2.50!
I for one would be very happy (!) to see the Franc fall - but expecting Sterling to do it instead, once the true cost of the Brexit/Covid combo is known. ah well.
Portugal is plan B.