I was wondering if some of you are observing the exchange rates for EUR/CHF but it just "collapsed" since some weeks. 5 weeks ago I was able to exchange EUR to CHF at a 1.01 rate. These days it's more between 0.965 & 0.975. I'll need to exchange 20 to 30k within the following two weeks and I wonder if you have some tipps. If I should wait more and risk it gets worse or if it's gonna stay withing this rates range for the coming week ?
Hello everyone,
Welcome to the world of fx rates. Nobody knows, have a look at the forward rates to see what the expectation is?
Forward rates are priced using interest rate differentials. They aren’t any kind of forecast of where rates are going to go. If it was done any differently market participants could arbitrage it.
It always gets worse. In 2000 when the Euro was introduced it was 1.6.
The Eurozone just entered a recession - the Swiss economy has not.
The ECB will hike by 25bps this Friday, largely priced in. What will their guidance be on future price hikes? They have been very hawkish so far to date, so hawkishness is priced in, if they come in a bit dovish - then all hell would break lose (EUR would come off)
So dusting my crystal ball: EUR will keep weakening against the CHF next two weeks.
Now my crystal ball is usually wrong all the time, which is why I still have a job because am too stupid to just buy index funds and forget about them, and instead try to time the market and pick winners that turn out to be losers forcing me into forever employment to maintain a savings rate that beats inflation
Forex market sees more than 5 trillion USD trading every day and a nice chunk of it involves EUR and/or CHF. The price these are trading today is the consensus as the best forward-looking price (if there was a consensus that EUR would grow w.r.t. CHF in the future - the price would be higher, and the other way around). By making this thread (vs just exchanging the money today) you are basically betting on the fact that a handful of users on an english-speaking Swiss forum can predict the forex market better than the participants who move billions of CHF and EUR.
I need to exchange 200k EUR into CHF. I was hopping that since the price of money in the EU zone was higher than in CH, the EUR would go higher, but I am not sure about this any more...
Where do you change it, with your bank?
Interactive broker number 1
Revolut premium membership number 2
your bank number 1000
Maybe, and off-course depends on what you need to buy, you can use an EU country.
So, we came with euros here, and after 8 months we knew we needed to buy a CH car, since ours would have probably not passed the MFK and was not worth investing any more money into it. That moment was the absolute lowest of the EUR vs. CHF so ... we bought a car from Germany, in euros
Just to give context: for 20k CHF we would have lost 1 k euros in fees and conversion...
Good luck with the transactions