Dissatisfied with purely economic explanations, researchers are beginning to point the finger at a new culprit — the digital devices and platforms that play an outsized role in young people’s lives across the world.
Nathan Hudson and Hernan Moscoso-Boedo of the University of Cincinnati published a paper last month looking at birth rates through the lens of the rollout of 4G mobile networks in the US and UK.
The number of births fell first and fastest in the areas that received high-speed mobile connectivity earliest. The authors argue that smartphones have transformed how young people spend time with one another, sharply reducing in-person socialising and leading to the collapse in their fertility.
FT research indicates the same trend has affected other countries.
For example, US, British and Australian birth rates for teens and young adults were broadly flat during the early 2000s but began to fall markedly from 2007.
The same slide began in France and Poland around 2009, and in Mexico, Morocco and Indonesia around 2012. What had been steady declines in fertility in Ghana, Nigeria and Senegal became precipitous drops between 2013 and 2015.
All of these inflection points coincided with the mass adoption of smartphones in local markets — as measured by Google searches for mobile apps.
Quite interesting chart. UK, US, Indonesia, Australia, Senegal.
My vote is earlier for the ‘fathers’ since google is required to look up how to avoid sudden and unanticipated vertical springs natural to either sex, not to mention other ‘answers’ prior to birth 8).
Someone from the office goes to military service next year. My wandering mind drifted away as usual.
I just realized military service is a lot of days and protected by law. Employers must let employees take part in military in spite of operational inconveniences, etc. In contrast paternity leave is 10 days and frowned upon. It seems priorities and incentives matter more than people realize.
A client of mine (from Spain), owner of a company, was fined for not taking the MANDATORY 6 weeks from the baby’s birth. (the paternity leave - like the maternity one - is paid by the Social security, not by the employer)
Thought of this thread while browsing through the local paper. I came across an ad for a 6.5 room flat in a Wohnbaugenossenschaft that offered a deduction from the rent for every child under 18 in the tenant’s family. The ad said they were specifically looking for a family with at least 3 minor aged children.
The deduction made the flat affordable for a young family - and well under the area average. This is the kind of practical help many young families need. If Switzerland is serious about wanting to boost the birth rate, maybe more of this kind of housing might be one way to go.
There were several Gemeinde that offered payment to the families with kids who wanted to move there. One was Quinten on Walensee, where just one family with one school kid lived at that moment. The village is only accessible by ship and the poor girl had no friends to play with. I remember that there was another example but I don’t remember the details.
There is no “the Swiss, in general”. OK, maybe that we hate racists… and foreigners (sorry, not that serious).
“The Swiss” are very keen of residence ownership, but with current prices most of them cannot even buy a dog’s house. 40 years in a real estate bubble does that…
I was not being fair. I let myself carry by the the populist impression of “more resources to defense/war than for the next generation”. Then, society acts surprised by the results.
