I am considering cashing in my Swiss second pillar to buy an apartment in Germany (Dresden). I am wondering if this is a good move in the light of the current crisis? I had been looking at a couple of places but am not sure how prices will evolve. After the 2008 crisis property prices in Germany began a steady rise but how will things work out this time?
True for the UK, not for Germany, especially in popular cities. Prices have been increasing a lot over the last years because Germany was very affordable compared to income and credit was cheap. Prices are stable but I think we will face a credit crunch - interest rates are low but banks will get a lot more restrictive who they lend to... I’m not sure I’d buy as an investment unless you are going to live in it(?)
Really good investment property is near impossible to find at the end of a ten year boom. I’d look for small flats near popular universities. But I’m not the only one thinking that way...
No idea about prices but apart from the caveats already given: Dresden is a lovely town, I ́d imagine houses will only get more expensive (as they are gettng more expensive in Berlin, where I bought) and interest is still very low (so lock in the interest for a good amount of years!).
Had a look at the prices now in the area where I bought and no difference. But then that may only come later this year, if at all.
A side topic, but potentially relevant for the OP.
Are you not liable for German tax on the funds you draw down from 2nd pillar to buy a property in Germany?
I am now also a German resident (and working) and was advised so by a Munich tax adviser. After discussions with them, I decided to leave my Swiss 2nd pillar in Switzerland for now. If there is a proven way to use the 2nd pillar funds without being liable for German tax, I would be very interested to get more details.
It greatly depends on what percentage of rent landlords receive. I know commercial property funds that have just received 30% of the second quarter rent. Most people don't have 3 months living costs in the Bank, so plenty of private rents will be missed.
Are you sure about German home prices? I think it is too early to say if it will be a price drop due to a severe recession. In theory it will but with trillions of money printed all over the world it may not realise.