Is 2026 the year of economic armageddon?

We have permabears warning about recession for a while now, but stock markets headed higher and higher, but now we see several factors converging:

  • War in Iran blocking oil and transport in general, leads to a spike in oil price, and inflation likely to follow
  • Trump tariffs disrupted trade and brings countries to become self-reliant and also creates inefficiency/inflation
  • AI adoption potentially resulting in higher unemployment
  • US debt growing massively and interest rates under pressure to rise to deal with inflation
  • Russia/Ukraine war still not resolved
  • Venezuela disruption
  • Warnings for Cuba and maybe Greenland
  • Who knows if China starts to eye Taiwan if US gets stretched thin elsewhere

Just the usual noise? Or is can the bubble continue to inflate past these concerns? Is stagflation a foregone conclusion now?

Choices went above and beyound a) - e). My answer is all the above and +. :wink:

  • Inflation is not economic armageddon, only an economic pest. Anyway, the risk is higher in southeast Asia where 99.9% of oil and gas comes from the Gulf.
  • AI-bubble is closer to fail to deliver results than replacing people. There is a risk in all the money invested burning up in a giant fire, not in taking our jobs.
  • US debt is growing, but 1 year of increase won’t change much.
  • Russia/Ukraine has been dragging since Crimea invasion (2014).
  • Venezuela is less disrupted than it seems. People was really looking forward to a change.
  • Greenland was a brain fart
  • Cuba is alone. It may be a total change for them, but zero impact outside the island.
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Unless of course some bugger does something incredibly stupid.

The only thing I know for sure: I don’t know nothing!

Can’t remember a moment in my already quite long life that there was no problem, war, inflation, idiots as politicians, stock market crashes and so on. Crisis after crisis after crisis.

My personal and economic life is much better than 40 or 50 years ago. I found peace and while 50 years ago I had to work one week per month without a single Rappen in my pocket my peace of mind when getting older made money find me, not the other way round. It all can be over in the blink of an eye, but like the Spaniards say: “que me quiten lo bailado!”.

  • I have seen inflation in Venezuela. Just understand that cash is trash (so are bonds) and you are OK. All central banks want inflation because we are stupid and cannot accept lower prices for some things. So, inflation is the only solution and knowing that just don’t keep money. It has a state guarantee to lose value.
  • AI obviously rises productivity in some fields, even it spends lots of energy. Higher productivity was a good thing historically.
  • US debt and almost all debt, hell, even my debt, is rising. So what, it is just money and cash is trash!
  • There were, are and will be wars because we are made that way. It is in our genes to kill each other. That is bad, but not an armageddon.
  • Venezuela, I love that country. Finally I’ll be able to visit again soon.
  • Greenland? What’s that?
  • Cuba is the last communist bastion, when it falls there will be big business. And I finally will be able to visit. I always thought that I could not during my lifetime.
  • China? Taiwan? Another war? Let’s hope not, but who knows.

Remember: all may be over in the blink of an eye. So why worry? Nuclear weapon can destroy the complete earth and end humankind just like that. And we cannot do anything against it. Just enjoy while it lasts, that is what I do!