Simply stock trading

Throw Goofy a :bone: to chew on and he’ll immediately fire up FASTgraphs. Can’t help himself, poor dog …


I like SIKA the company/business …

FCF and OCF fetishists click here to expand


… but still not the price:

If you bought the entire company in whole at its current price and keep to yourself all of the profits it generates (no more dividend payments to anyone since the company and the profits are yours), you’d currently get 4.45% on what you paid. That’s not enough for me.

Things I like about SIKA:

  • (as mentioned) the business and its ability to grow earnings (and cash flows) at about 10% over a 20 year period in the past and according to analyst expectations:crystal_ball: also going forward
  • only moderate cyclicality (in earnings and cash flows)
    Kinda surprising for a chemicals business – I guess they have some kind of moat (maybe acid water in their moat surrounding their castle instead of plain water filled with :crocodile:
  • A- credit rating
  • 14 consecutive years of dividend raises, dividend CAGR of almost 13%
    (I asked Gemini about the cut that FASTgraphs shows in 2012 – apparently it’s not a cut but some financial shenanigan thing – dig deeper at your own pleasure)
  • their name: it always reminds me of SIKU – best die-cast models evaarrrr.

Things I don’t like about it:

  • the price

Things that make me go meh:

  • relatively high dividend payout ratio for an I assume relatively capital intensive business:
    • 55% of earnings
    • 36% of OCF
    • 46% of FCF
  • analysts’ earnings (and OCF/FCF) expectations:crystal_ball::crystal_ball: for the next couple of years have been falling steadily

Footnotes

:crystal_ball: Earnings forecasting:crystal_ball::crystal_ball::crystal_ball:

:crystal_ball::crystal_ball: Earnings revisions by analysts:crystal_ball::crystal_ball::crystal_ball:

:crystal_ball::crystal_ball::crystal_ball: Analyst scorecard:

Translation: the analysts are not terrible at forecasting earnings. If anything, they are a little optimistic, which can be blamed on the analysts, the company guidance, or both.

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