Which begs the question what you intended with your post in the first place. You lament that it’s clickbait while ranting about his utter lack of qualifications while claiming that you don’t want to take away anything from the article. Talk about contradicting yourself.
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Same, though I was later than you. And it’s more than 25% now thanks to this week’s stunning price action.
This is the “market dividend” rule from the dividend strategy. In my gambling strategy I partially sell every year and after every 500% of gain.
Don’t know about SaaS specifically, but been keeping an eye on QQQ, it’s approaching its 200SMA (downward). Will be looking at it of it goes under, and then reverses upward (could take a long while). Besides that CHDVD and SCHD have been very kind to me this year.
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As I told already here, a friend of mine does 76% SCHD, 4% O and 20% QQQ, then re balances every 7 months. Since 15th December 2021 his CAGR is 13.56% per year. Index did worse, Nasdaq 11.44%, SP500 9.68% and the Dow made 7.46% per year during the same period.
This year (YTD) he is at 21%. Nice!
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I actually had the idea to do my USD holdings 1/3 TQQQ and 2/3 SCHD, and be following the 200SMA as a guide when to exit and enter TQQQ. SCHD is as holy as the Bible for me, not to ever be sold. Did it for a few months last year and then exited TQQQ with 90% gain because I chickened out. Even worse didn’t go back in when the 200SMA crossed upwards this year and missed possibly 100-120% gains there. Now I am just waiting to get back under, and then back up…
That said, lowly VWRL which is 50% of my portfolio hasn’t done badly at all this year either…
I keep it simple. MA work perfectly… in the past. For the future you will have to guess the correct number, 200 may be bad and cause a lot of whipsaw action. Or may have you miss nice gains.
The re-balancing is to catch Shannon’s demon and that seems to work. You automagically sell high and buy low.
Remember the whipsaw song:
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INTU bounced beautifully off the 200 day SMA. But many of other stocks in my SaaS portfolio look vulnerable to further falls:
The bounce in SaaS over the last few days seems like a rotation from chip stocks to SaaS. As chip stocks are likely to be volatile, it will be interesting to see if this reverses over the next days.
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Actually I have never seen something like that, that many overpriced stocks. Even stocks that are with me over a decade got way too expensive for the first time since I hold them.
At the moment in my dividend strategy the following stocks are on “sell”: Broadcom, DuPont, Cummins, Cisco, Caterpillar and Qnity, which was a spin-off from DuPont last November.
Probably the ETF theory is true: too many people just buy ETF and therefor buy the overvalued stocks at any price and without analyzing the company.
I sell an overpriced stock when momentum slows down. Hopefully it keeps going a little.
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What measure of momentum do you use for this?
Along with the IPOs that happened or scheduled: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic… I wonder if we are entering the final stages of this bull market.
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Anyone invest in Meta and know why their opex increased by a shocking 55%? Even if you exclude the legal expenses and severance, there’s still a massive increase.
Actually I tried different parameters, but it all comes out more or less the same. So I keep it simple: I add the difference to the last high (always a negative number) to the one year performance. Then I sort the holdings by that number. It has to be negative and in the lower half to be sold.
There were years that I did not have to sell anything. Good times. Because remember, hold as long as possible… but not longer!
It may look like that, but nobody knows. I don’t care for IPOs but people want to be cheated for some reason unexplained.
If the ETF theory is true it cuts both ways: once they start selling in panic they will sell anything, even good and cheap companies.
I don’t try to time the market, I let the market tell me what to do. Observe, not predict. My investment quote (on credit) always depends on the difference of the SP500 to its last high. In a bear market, defined by the SP500 down more than 20% I even buy on credit in the dividend strategy. In the gambling strategy I always buy on credit.
One has to be with the market most of times, but be contrarian at the right moment…
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This chart was previously all red, but after the last 2 trading sessions they are all green:
I drew this to find where I was under-performing an equal-weighted basket of same stocks. The ‘mistakes’ are the top left and bottom right quadrants.
In the last days I equivocated on whether to buy BLKB. It is not a stock I would ordinarily own and I decided against it in the end, but this was up over 40% in the last days and up 18% in just the last trading session!
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And buying the rare good companies individually rather than following along an index would be even more valuable. I can see the appeal of your strategy 
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Speaking of indices …
Wharton Research Data Services
My stocked picked portfolio is more stable than the S&P 500. Sounds kind of goofy as I think about it …
Well it seems like waiting for the open doesn’t cut it. I’d planned to rotate a bit out of SaaS back into ORCL/MSFT. SaaS already gave up yesterday’s gains and ORCL up 5%, MSFT up 15% 
I guess in such a volatile market, I should have done it pre-market or just before yesterday’s close.
Altria drops over 7% today if anyone is interested. My position is kind of full, but I always like discounts like this. Maybe I’ll write a Put. Looks like easy money to me … (famous last words, I know).
Looking at the chart for MO and BTI makes me wonder why I didn’t buy more between 2019 and 2023/2024…
But I don’t agree with FastGraphs fair value at 15 P/E. For tobacco, I’d say more like 10-12.
Yeah, FASTgraphs defaults to Graham-Dodd’s fair value formula for “normal” growth companies which ends up at 15 for Altria. But look at Altria’s valuation between 2014 and 2018: way above 20 …
Looked at options to sell for Altria but pricing isn’t at all attractive for the levels (60 and below) and the expiry times (6 months out or more) that I am interested in. Wouldn’t even get the dividend yield if I instead bought the stock outright.
Kind of surprising … usually there’s a nice fear premium for stocks that fall this much. Maybe the options market makers are a little less panicky than the stock market participants …
Dividend strategy:
Speaking of bad market timing: today a very old companion had to go: Broadcom (AVGO). The pain of parting is reduced a bit by IB which tells me it was at a gain of >1300%. Was with me for over a decade.
Now, where to put that money? A question for my mechanical stock picker, the captain. He told me to buy Robert Half Incorporated (RHI). And again already lost the dividend of the first year in the first day…
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