All sectors are “special”, but the cash flow statement of financial companies are kind of difficult. A lot of manual correction needed, you cannot trust any (paid or non-paid) service to do that for you. Or, if you really want to get it wrong, just ask an AI. 
Ask many AIs and pick the answer you like best 
I wouldn’t buy GEO or CXW. They’re relatively pricey and I tend to avoid in general companies that are driven by politics: In 2021 Biden announced an end to federal private prison contracts, that’s why cubanpete was able to buy them cheap; they both jumped when Trump won. Similar moves to the downside are to be expected when the Dems win. They’re mature businesses but neither pays a divi, what the heck!?
If I remember correctly that was after I bought. They were cheap and rising, a rare combination. I don’t ask why, the market is always right but you have to be early to profit from that fact.
And the worst, the patience it takes to wait for the next cheap stock that is rising…
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Not really. In my backtests and in real life I had little correlation to the indices, so even if I lose big and the index goes up I won’t change a thing. At the moment. When I find a rule that is stupid (like the 2 years holding period) that changes, such a rule I probably would change. But it does not exist any longer so I’m fine.
The strong rules (the captain) help me to get rid of behavioural risks that everybody suffers. Whenever I hate to do what my rules tell me… it results in a great trade. Mostly at least, of course I pick a lot of losers, that is the cost of doing business.
The most important in any stock strategy is what to do with the winners and what with the losers. There my rules help too.
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I am not that sure Dems may win. And yes other countries are offering long term services, but the short term of the pipeline up to relocation may need capacity increase.
Yeah, personally feel I know too much about drug development to feel comfortable investing on pharma…says having 10% portfolio in CHDVD…
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I suffer from a related syndrome with Tech … currently a healthy 3.7% of my stock picks are in Tech. Two of the three (Qualcomm and SkyWorks) are on the sell list and the 3rd is eff-ing Broadcom which seems a tad overvalued.
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Speaking about tech: in my gambling portfolio Supermicro reached 48 monts. The rent is due today at 852% gain.
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AMGN down almost 10% … on days like this one I like selling long dated Puts about 15-20% below the current pice to garner a nice “fear” premium. AMGN was clearly overpriced – I complained just recently about wanting to sell some, but I just bought them in May 2026 – and writing a Put would be one … ahem, option, to profit from today’s correction.
Alas, I don’t have the cash (aka BOXX) cushion to secure that Put … plus, the long dated Puts at a strike around $320 aren’t super attractive. Attractive, but not super attractive. I’ll simmer on this for a couple more hours as long as the market remains open, maybe I’ll still sell a put.
Anecdotally, the price drops a little more the subsequent day (due to market mechanics, I believe), but the fear premium (for options) is usually gone the day after.
BKNG, someone?
“forecast” FV should be around 170 USD.
Same play as EXPE(dia) - swing back into the top of the green area.
Not for me (mainly because of the low dividend payout), but otherwise I find it fairly interesting.
That orange “fair value” line is at 27xP/E which is IMO a bit distorted because you include years with with lots of growth (until 2014 and then again post COVID).
Going forward they still expect double digit (earnings) growth, but only slightly above 15% and the fair value line (with P/E=G) thus slides to about 17xP/E. Still impressive, but it’s not as undervalued as the historical graph with the selected years would suggest.
Except I’ve never used them and successfully taught my wife to no longer use them.
I was looking for a new company into my son’s portfolio (time horizon: probably at least three decades; dividends are not relevant) as a couple hundred bucks have accumulated in cash via dividends.
Came across Chuck Carnevale’s recent video on 20 Fast-Growing Stocks and came away with some that I liked, ranging from banking to footware to software and even including transmissions!
Ameriprise
Alas, it’s already a position in his portfolio (well, not really alas, AMP made it into his portfolio a couple of years ago and it’s up bigly).
Of course, they all require further research and more scrutiny, but I like Allison Transmissions and Bancorp best so far.
Edit: Bancorp dropped about 24% today … 
When a bloke/company named Hutchinson Whampoa took a big junk of Priceline I did participate. Unfortunately this was in the nineties and my captain wasn’t even born then. I sold with a few hundred percent of gain. I could have stopped working like 20 years earlier just with this stock. But at least it did help me to build my rules.
That is probably the best example why it pays to do what I have in my title “Managing Siesta Director”: nothing!
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I like BKNG. There are some potential long term AI concerns, but I don’t know enough about the industry. I could imagine all hotels providing APIs or bookings being done via AI. Normally I use booking.com to find my hotels. The last trip, I did it via AI and the hotel webpage.
I was kicking myself for not getting into some shipping names last year thinking it was too late and I’d be buying in a high cycle. Iran crushed that.
I wonder if Navios Maritime Partners LP NMM is still a buy though? If Iran situation creates issues that last a long time, maybe the higher price can be justified. Insiders have been strongly buying.
These 2 posts ended up in draft. Posting now. I did buy NMM. Maybe I’m going from a buy low, sell high strategy to a buy high, sell higher strategy! 
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Transmission (as in: automotive), in 30 years from now?
I’d bet on that!
From their investor relations (highlighting mine):
Allison Transmission is a global propulsion technology leader that designs, manufactures and distributes vehicle propulsion solutions for commercial and defense vehicles. An established supplier of commercial-duty electrified propulsion systems and the world’s largest global manufacturer of medium- and heavy-duty fully automatic transmissions, Allison offers a broad range of propulsion solutions that are used in a wide variety of applications, including on-highway trucks (distribution, refuse, construction, fire and emergency, etc.), buses (school, transit and coach) including the industry’s first electric hybrid propulsion solution for articulated and non-articulated transit buses launched in 2003, motorhomes, off-highway vehicles and equipment (energy, mining and construction applications) and defense vehicles (tactical wheeled and tracked).
I just found this on a Finance-savvy blog:
Is Booking.com cheaper?
Everyone knows the usual trick: use Booking.com to find the right hotel, then book it cheaper on the hotel’s own website.For years, Booking.com forced hotels not to offer lower prices anywhere else. Hotels got around this by giving all kinds of “membership” discounts, even before your first booking. (In September 2024, the EU ruled that Booking.com has no right to dictate where and at what price hotels advertise their rooms, so that restriction is now gone.)
I almost automatically booked on the hotel’s own site, where I immediately got a 15% discount just for becoming a member. But out of habit, I also checked the price on Booking.com.
It turned out to be much cheaper. Not only was it about €50–60 less for a few nights, but they also included a free airport transfer – an entire hour’s taxi ride on the motorway from the airport into the city. On the way back, the cheapest option was the bus at €20 per person. A taxi would have been at least €100 if we had to pay.
On top of that, I could pay with RevPay on Booking.com, earning double points and immediately redeeming RevPoints. In the end, the Booking.com booking was about 20–25% cheaper than the hotel’s own site with its 15% discount, even before counting the RevPoints.
The lesson? It’s not that Booking.com is always cheaper, but that you should always calculate the total cost both on Booking.com (or similar sites) and on the hotel’s own website. You can sometimes save up to 25%, and often not where you’d expect.
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I think Booking is fine for things like hotel reservations, but for flights I find that the actual airline site is worth it even if a tad more expensive. Travel plans can and do go wrong, and it’s far easier to rebook on an airline’s app than calling a customer service line for a 3rd party.
On the topic of travel and leisure - any good stocks in that area right now? I had thought with everything getting more expensive there would be a dip, but it seems even Americans are travelling in record numbers this summer.
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I like VICI – we discussed it a couple of days ago here. It keeps getting cheaper …
My position and money management in the gambling strategy is based on the SP500. If it goes further down I soon must buy something.
As there is absolutely nothing in sight I must double down on an existing position. That is the bad part of my concept of charging a rent every 12 months. The good part is that it keeps me moving and creates spending cash for me.
Some of those double positions did make me a lot of money, like Supermicro.
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