is this just cards for deal making?
Yes, please
From Inside Paradaplatz
In English
UBS wants to leave – plans are well advanced.
Ermotti and Kelleher are likely to discuss the implications with Bern.
Departure could begin as early as 2027—unless the Federal Council threatens a severe exit penalty.
I bet 2 beers at bluffing.
The US tax system is more complex for international customers than Switzerland’s one. Also, exposure to US courts even for a simple civil case. So, it would be a downgrade for international customers.
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UBS does not have to go to US. Uk has already extended a quite enticing olive branch … From the UK, UBS would be shielded from US exposure, while UBS buys up smaller US banks and operates them as subsidiaries based on local laws …
My curiosity is what the Swiss authorities will demand, given that Swiss authorities gave UBS the sweetest deal to buy out CS …
The demand should be the spin off of the domestic retail business. Ideally by splitting it up into 4-5 independent entities (remember, the current set of branches is the amalgam of originally four national banks (SBG+SBV+SVB+SKA) that all had representations all over the country. The split can’t produce regional specialisation or any “too big to fail” entity, and it should increase competition. Obviously fusions need to be seen much more critically than 30-40 years ago.
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Should have happened with CS but didn’t. Can’t see it now either.
It used to be separate - domestic, investment bank, WM CH, WM America, etc. But reporting was done on a conglomerate basis. So it was hard to see which area made gains or losses, and they shifted money around to make any losses appear good.
Now, as a one big one, i dont see how they can complete globally with other big ones, if ubs splits up into smaller pieces … i would be surprised if this happened…
EDIT: As separate units, their operating costs (I know of IT) were much higher. After consolidation, operational costs are lower. leaving more capital to play with. Breaking them up would drive up operational costs.
Parliament is at long last playing tough. Here’s hoping the representatives have realised their responsibility and keep ignoring the lobbying and Ermotti’s threats.
Original WSJ article now archived: here.
Starting with the dissection.
This paragraph looks like a PR/negotiation strategy from UBS. It makes look like the Swiss government is still unsure of the path ahead. They may not proceed, negotiations still open, etc. My impression is that the matter is settled on the side of Swiss gov, the people believing the negotiation has not ended are all in UBS.
People at the bank and their advisers are mapping out contingency plans should Swiss lawmakers proceed with tougher capital requirements under the country’s too-big-to-fail banking laws. The measures are a response to UBS having to rescue Credit Suisse three years ago, according to people familiar with the bank’s efforts.
Option 1: moving to the USA. Switzerland has never extradited a banker. Said bankers would move to the Wild West and be exposed to prosecution in the USA. In the past, prosecutions from the USA end up in fines, deferred prosecution, but no trial and prison time. Do executives really want to live life in the fast lanet? I’d start daring them to move to the USA if they’re brave enough 
Option 2: merging or buying something in Europe. That’s like the movement of Nordea Bank from Stockholm to Helsinki. No drama, main reason is that Finland is within the Euro area while Sweden, Denmark and Norway are not.
Option 3: selling itself? That’s not a bad option. Generate cash, open new bank in CH.
Options under discussion include buying a U.S.-based financial institution and relocating, merging with a European rival or selling itself to a U.S. firm seeking its well-heeled clientele, the people familiar with the matter said.
The main paragraph in near the bottom:
There are no guarantees UBS will proceed with any deal and some have suggested the bank is posturing in a last-ditch effort to persuade lawmakers to alter their plans, which still require parliamentary approval that is expected in the coming months. It could also just decide to stay. Under the current proposal, the bank would have seven years to phase in the higher capital requirements.