Will we get an energy crunch from the Iran conflict?

Exactly, the only language Putin understands is action. If anything NATO and the EU have been too passive against Russia. Having Putin’s poodle in the White House does not help.

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I think we need a mixed solution, not just one extreme or the other. Yes to Russian gas, but also to alternatives so we are not vulnerable.

As for Russian aggression, I guess before the color revolutions, things seemed quiet when Ukraine was just a puppet state of Russia. I do wonder if we just let Ukraine and Georgia remain under Russian influence, whether all would be OK, but maybe that is wishful thinking.

But a solution is required for Ukraine, one that both Ukraine and Russia can buy into… if there is such a solution.

That wasn’t even Putin’s demand, neither Nato nor EU membership would have done, presumably even with a west-friendly government in place. Some version of a neutral UA.

But that was before the war, that cat is out of the bag now. The four oblasts plus the Krim are gone for good. Not to speak of the human cost.

As for the natural gas, one pipe of Nordstream is still intact … After the other three have been destroyed by the very country the EU just spent €90 billion to finance for less one year. And of course many hundred billions more will have to follow.

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Actually this is not the case, Refineries can be tuned to vary their output although this can’t be done overnight. In particular diesel and Jet-A1 are very similar in terms of density and therefore refining, the difference is more in the blending and additives after basic refining.

Useful Reddit thread here.

IEA Executive Director sees the Iran war driving a permanent move away from fossil fuels

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Yeah, I mentioned that a while back.
That would be the hight of irony if Trumpian politics put the final nail in the petrodollar.

I’m pretty sure the same was said about the two oil crises in the 70ies and 80ies. And it actually did, at least to a limited extent. For instance it’s why countries have national reserves now.

Yet here we are, still burning oil and gas like crazy.

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There was no alternative to oil-powered transport in the 70s and 80s.

Now there is and it’s much more efficient, much easier to scale and with a rapidly decreasing price-tag.

As for the flights: they are already being reduced Not because we don’t have enough aviation fuel, but the countries where the planes might fly don’t have enough. If the plane cannot be re-fueled at the destination or it’s only half-full, it just won’t fly there.

Fewer flights mean more expensive flights, which usually reduces demand. The result is demand destruction.

Except there’s no way the alternatives provide a stable and predictable supply in sufficient amounts. That’s why Germany needs conventional backup domestically which drives costs through the roof, complemented with imports that were produced with fossil fuels.

You can argue all you want, but reality immediately disproves the every single bit of the ideologically driven greenwashing.

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Probably more than 99% of all private individual transportation can be done electric.

Likely, only a marginally less amount of commercial transportation can’t be done electric.

The only exception is air travel.

Commercial use of oil or gas in industry is something else.

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Keep dreaming while sticking your head in the sand. Even the EU has accepted reality and dropped the 2035 ICE ban.

Was that before or after Trump attacked Iran? :wink:

Modified not dropped I think you’ll find. Big mistake by the EU, will ultimately cost EU car manufacturers by making them even less competitive with the Chinese.

They know they are doomed - but the current crop of management needs to push it until they are retired.

Similar happened to good ol’ AT&T, IBM, etc. The ol’timers had to be pushed out and new generational blood had to be brought in.

The US senate & congress need similar overhaul. I can’t imagine 75+ year yunguns making policy and running the country that is ‘progressing’ at breakneck speed.

Those at 75 are actually the younger ones in Congress…

No agism there, at least :wink:

That’s complete nonsense. The manufacturers don’t need big brother aka the EU to tell them what to do, nothing keeps them from going 100% EV.

The problem is, however, that those pesky consumers stubbornly refuse to see your and the EU’s wisdom, they keep buying ICE cars.

Like most things that have been entrenched into the mindset of people over generations driving around with suck, squeeze, bang, blow will take just as many generstions for it to be ereased.
Best case is when we old timers who know about intetnal combustion from day to day use pop our collective clogs and the new generation have to visit a museum to see one.
Or Go to a ICE reenactment show where priceless and rare Ford Mondeo’s are gaped and gasped at.

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In other news, Russia informed that it will suspend, starting May 1, oil deliveries from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline that runs through Russia. The recipient is the PCK Schwedt refinery near Berlin. The refinery supplies about 90% of Berlin’s and Brandenburg’s petrol, kerosene, and heating oil, however Druzhba provides only 20% of its input or 1mln barrels per month (2mln tonnes annually). It runs at 85-90% capacity, economically this cut is “catastrophic” says board chair Danny Ruthenburg.

Another Druzhba arm runs through Ukraine to Hungary. It’s about to resume operation after Orban lost the recent election, which in turn unblocks the EU’s €90 billion credit to the Ukraine.