If you aim for capitulation, there’s no need for a settlement.
Then you end up having to run the government. Israel won’t do that, preferring a lybia-type transition (Chaos). The US can’t run their own government.
The US couldn’t run a piss up in a brewery.
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I ran across a shipping rule called “General Average” today. It’s a rule that’s over a hundred years old, but still relevant today. Basically, if a captain has to make a tough call to save the whole voyage, say, steering around a storm zone or jettisoning some cargo to stop a fire, everyone on board shares the bill. That even if your container arrives unscathed, you owe a piece of the cost based on the value inside.
It’s becoming relevant again with the situation in the Middle East. Several lines are already pulling ships out of the danger zone, leaving containers at whatever port happens to be safe rather than the agreed destination. When that happens, General Average kicks in:
- Everyone splits the cost of the detour and any lost gear.
- Goods might end up sitting at a port halfway across the world.
- To get them released there, you’ll likely need to post cash collateral or buy a specific insurance bond first.
- You probably have to foot the bill for trucking those goods from that weird new port all the way back to where they were supposed to go.
It’s one of those clauses people ignore until it hits them in the face. Given how often ships are getting diverted lately, there’s probably going to be a lot of chaos for a while.
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Some more ships coming out. Interestingly, they divert between 2 islands within Iran’s territorial waters. It’s not clear if this is part of some deal where Iran identifies and clears these ships so that they can depart safely.
But it also offers an interesting route: passing through Iran’s waters, they can charge them a fee and so turn this into a tollbooth.
Or…is this the mine-free path?
I read a recent news snippet that once agreed and approved by iranians, these ships turn on their transponders to let iranians know and they go through safely.
There was no mention of any toll in recent news articles. However i also read that iranians are preferring yuan as currency of choice.
Will it be toll-free if transactional DJT provides escort? Safety guarantee?
The Iranians wouldn’t mention tolls–it might give someone ideas…
Are there mines? Apparently the Orangutan destroyed Iran’s Navy the first day, and then followed up by then destroying Iran’s Navy mine laying ships the following week and continues destroying the already destroyed ships every day. Yet no reports of any ship damaged by mines.
All you need to lay mines is a dhow. Maybe they are there, but no one has yet run into one.
Or they are following the approved routes after being given clearance from the Iranians.
Either there are no mines, or the Iranians are telling approved ships how to steer around them?
Plot twist - they are Schrödinger’s mines. Are they there, or are they not? Take our navigation instructions or find out.
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The idea that everything’s all right comes US presidential admin. Making decisions based on this info is…quite brave.
I guess this is one case where bluffing can accomplish a lot. Who will go out there to check if the mines exist or not? I don’t expect any crew from any commercial ship to do this work.
That would be quite clever: mine the international waters so that Iranian territorial water is the only safe path.
I believe they are “smart” mines that are remotely activated and deactivated
Such mines have been around for half a century
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I don’t know if Iran has these, but there are also smart mines which can detect ‘signatures’ of different types of ships and only detonate for specific signatures.
Even if you were one of Iran’s friends, why would you risk a potential false positive?
And regardless of all that, what determines shipping is not the bravery of captains and crew but insurers. Oil tankers and container ships are too expensive to FAFO.
"NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar.
First useful thing Trump has said so far regarding this conflict.