Bought some more Smucker[$] the day before yesterday when it dipped for whatever reason.
Fairly slow (earnings) growth, but nice dividend yield (but slow’ish dividend growth) and a nice record of 23 years of dividends raised.
Free Cash Flow (FCF) is a bit cyclical but covers the dividend well.
A bit high on debt with almost 55% of long term debt to equity, but decent BBB credit rating. According to their latest 10-Q their long-term debt is fairly staggered out
and again the FCF should cover interest payments on their debt well.
Price has been falling essentially since the weight loss drugs came out. Market fears that nobody’s going to eat their junk food anymore. Goofy believes differently. Earnings and cash flow predictions by analysts also point in a different direction and analysts have a near perfect track record for this company:
If the company returns to its normal multiple of about 13.6 x P/E, then I’d be looking at a 30% total annualized return which is fine by me … ![]()
… if not, I’ll just have to get by on the dividend, which is fine by me, too. I also like that their earnings forecasts for a year or two out have been mostly stable in the forecasts half a year ago to just about a month ago.
Today I also noticed that the company’s chairman and CEO is also a Smucker, a fifth-generation member of the family. I kind of like that. Half of his relatives will be breathing down his neck if somehow tilts towards messing up the business …
$ The J. M. Smucker Co. engages in the manufacture and marketing of food and beverage products. It operates through the following segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks. The U.S. Retail Coffee segment includes the domestic sales of Folgers, Dunkin’, and Café Bustelo branded coffee. The U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads segment focuses on domestic sales of Smucker’s and Jif branded products. The U.S. Retail Pet Foods segment is involved in the domestic sales of Meow Mix, Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni, and Canine Carry Outs branded products. The Sweet Baked Snacks segment refers to all domestic and foreign sales of Hostess and Voortman branded products in all channels. The company was founded by Jerome Monroe Smucker in 1897 and is headquartered in Orrville, OH.




