@el_pablo dagnabbit, you just made me go out and buy more CHTR. It’s my second biggest losing position.
Comcast looks ok, fulfills all my requirements for the dividend portfolio.
The long term chart looks like it could find a bottom soon or has already found it:
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Video on CHTR debt:
Their debt maturity table is so long it doesn’t fit into one screenshot … 
Given their strong Operating Cash Flow I’m not sure why they can’t service that debt, though. Perhaps a bit expensive to renew any loans given their non-investment grade rating, though.
FCF:
Maybe Mr. Market just hates cable TV …
Yes, they smartly pushed out maturities for a large chunk of debt. I think market is concerted about increasingly rapid loss of customers and a general cord-cutting trend.
I’m concerned about whether they can cut back on capex to deleverage. If they can contain capex and grow FCF, then I think the stock is a winner.
Perhaps now is the time to sell? But then again with 10% gov ownership and current moronic politics …!
Soon you can trade AI compute as a commodity as CME launches futures market on AI.
One more reason to own … CME! They’ll profit from this regardless.
Unfortunately, there’s only few opportunities when they’re buyable.
Came across Tractor Supply this morning which has been on my watchlist since forever.
Looks like it’s finally diving into buyable territory?
FCF:
If they stay at the fair 15 x P/E multiple, you’d be looking at a double digit total return (TR) CAGR.
If somehow they went back to their normal multiple of almost 24 x P/E, you’d see a 34% TR CAGR over the next couple of years.
A little high on debt and I kind of don’t like that their earnings expectations have been going down, but then again, something must be causing this price pressure.
As a “forever” holding this might not matter much. Even with the current price down more than 50% since its last all time high, the stock is still a 200 bagger since its IPO in 1994 …
Ok, maybe for about six years or so.
Yeah, recent news i have read indicates a) they are having a hard time ( just like home depot, lowe’s,etc. ) since consumer spending has gone down and b) are now spending on advertising to lure clients into stores.
From personal experience, their store inventory is much better than mom-and-pop dyi stores and pretty reasonably priced.
The story is much worse for Ace Hardware. They will be one of the first to fold, which I dont think is unlikely, if the US economic situation continues.
Somebody is much more likely to pick up Traktor Supply, should that come to pass.
Just my thoughts …
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Retail is always hot and can turn on the blink of an eye.
OK, poor people living in cities in Switzerland don’t have Landi’s, the Swiss alternative to Tractor Supply. But in addition they have the best beer made in Switzerland and it costs like 60 cents half a liter!
All right.
Today’s Himmelfahrtskommando:
-
Initiated a foot-in-the-door position on TSCO. Plan is to add more when it dips more (or, averaging up, add more if it reverses back up …
) -
Sold my entire TSN[$] position. It’s been on my potential sell list for a while. It’s not overvalued, but I have other concerns (see footnote).
-
The proceeds from that sale went into
- INGR
- OMC
- VICI
Net result:
- $612 in dividends by TSN replaced by $699.60 individends by INGR, OMC and VICI plus an additional $96 in dividends bought with fresh cash in TSCO.
- the TSN dividend grew by less than 3% annually, the dividends by INGR, OMC and VICI grow between 4-6% annually; the TSCO dividend currently grows about 7% annually.
Still have some cash to deploy, but I’ll wait for the options expiry event tomorrow[$$] to pass before initiating any further trades.
$ TSN – Tyson Foods: It felt like a promising investment at the time (Sept 2020), but their earnings fell rapidy and some scandals piled up as well: CFO John R. Tyson, son of the company’s chairman, was arrested in 2022 after police found him “asleep at wrong house”, and again in 2024 he was arrested on charges of driving while intoxicated. He was then suspended as the CFO … that’s normal accountant behavior, nothing to see here, please move on.
$$ Regular monthly expiration is the standard expiration cycle for listed stock options. Expiration typically occurs on the third Friday of the contract month.
Have no idea what you are claiming?
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Cities, not Adliswil…
Exactly one year ago my new career als oil sheikh did start with buying the refinery CVR Energy (CVI). I charge quiet some rent to stay that long in my portfolio and that stock with it’s 44% price appreciation in a year can pay it without problems.
So I sold some today. All according to my mechanics in the gambling portfolio.
A wild ride:
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OK, checked TSCO. I somehow an “inbetweener” for me. A bit expensive but not too much and they spend a bit more than the FCF in dividends and share buybacks. Buy back shares may be a good idea after this price performance…
I remember holding TSCO long time ago, even before I started mechanical investment.
Chart looks just terrible. I would definitely wait until it starts to rise.
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@Your_Full_Name you might be interested in this article on LSEG.
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Thanks!
A takeover would be a pity – even if the price went up for a bid – as I’d have to find a different company that pays an 8+% dividend …
Bold assertions. Linked by the FT. Interesting recommendations to sail through the storm: Inditex (Zara), H&M and construction companies.
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No comment on the AI bubble valuations to limit the discussion somewhat to the topic title, but with regards to the companies mentioned and my fundamental 2 Rappen on them:
From Joachim[J] and Francisca[F] verbatim:
The best AI crash hedges are European and UK retailers (Inditex, H&M, Next, B&M), as well as UK construction (Balfour Beatty, Morgan Sindall, Keller). These sectors are projected to
lose less than 10% of their market value.
Retailers:
I like the earnings trajectory, but I don’t like the price.
I like neither the earnings trajectory nor the price.
I like the earnings trajectory, but I don’t like the price.
I don’t like the earnings trajectory, I like the price.
No clothing companies for Goofy – he doesn’t change his outfit that often anyway: green hat, orange sweater, black gilet, blue pants, brown shoes.
What else does one really need?
Construction:
Operating Cash Flow trajectory … meh. Price … meh. A little too cyclical for me.
Acceptable earnings trajectory (but apparently not great in the years ahead). Price seems ok.
Earnings trajectory actually looks fine, price as well. This is the only company that I’d do a bit more research on.
I don’t really have any understanding of the construction business and their cyclicality, so maybe I’d look at other things that I can understand more easily.
Also, what does “These sectors are projected to lose less than 10% of their market value” mean? These industries lost the least based on the n=1 sample of the TMT crash (otherwise known as the dot com bubble)?
Thanks for linking to the research, though, I got some good FASTgraphs fun out of it. 
J “Joachim has worked in the investment industry for almost 20 years,
mostly on the buy side. He is an investment strategist and ESG
specialist within the strategy team. […]”
Joachim kind of lost me at ESG …
F “Francisca joined the Panmure Liberum Research team in 2026 […]. She is currently studying for the CFA Level I qualification.”
There are three CFA levels and she hasn’t completed the first one yet?
I know, I’m a snob.
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