Simply stock trading

I like neither, but at least the S&P 500 didn’t change its rules to include Space X …

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“The S&P Composite 1500® combines three leading indices, the S&P 500®, the S&P MidCap 400®, and the S&P SmallCap 600®, …”

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-composite-1500/#overview

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There are plenty of ETF threads already. Here is one US-domiciled ETF in vested benefits / Fz account (for US person) - #2 by RobBob

IMO would keep clear from them cause Santa Musk and co are coming to market.

Unfortunately they have no strong rules, just guidelines that they break whenever they feel like it. The SP500 is more like a (badly) active managed fund. And on top of that the members that choose what to in- or exclude are anonymous.

Sorry, I live in Switzerland and don’t have to adhere those stupid tax laws… OK… I had to leave Switzerland for two years to cash in my pension fund because our politicians love to fly around and sign papers that fuck us.

But that is long time ago and I have forgiven them, they are all retired with a very big benefit anyhow. As I did not have that luxury I had to make my money in the stock market.

@Your_Full_Name I know you’re a fan of tobacco stocks, but I do wonder how long they will last:

I’m not a fan, I’m a fanatic. :wink:

I clicked your … ahem, click-bait but hit a paywall. Are you sure your concerns aren’t just going up in smokes?

Here is a summary of the article:

Overview
The Nassau County Tobacco Securitization Corporation (NCTSC) missed a $35.9 million principal bond payment on June 1, marking the first-ever payment default in the municipal tobacco bond sector. The default is driven by a long-term decline in cigarette consumption, which has drastically reduced the tobacco settlement revenues used to service the debt.

Key Takeaways

  • The Financial Shortfall: The 2006 bonds were issued to securitize payments from a 1998 multi-state tobacco settlement. However, this year’s settlement payment to Nassau was only $14.7 million—far short of the $44.2 million needed to cover the June 1 principal and interest.
  • Market Reaction: NCTSC bonds have plummeted to an all-time low of 52 cents. While institutional high-yield buyers understand the “extension risk” (delayed principal payments), the default could trigger panic selling among retail investors, creating moderate liquidity risks for the broader tobacco bond sector.
  • No Spillover Expected: Experts do not expect the credit stress in tobacco bonds to spill over into unrelated high-yield sectors, though investors are becoming more selective. Cigarette sales are projected to continue dropping significantly in 2026 and 2027.
  • No Refinancing Options: Unlike some states that have paid off or restructured their tobacco bonds to avoid default, NCTSC has been told by major banks that refinancing is impossible. An audit has raised “substantial doubt” about the entity’s ability to continue as a going concern.
  • No Impact on Nassau County: Fitch Ratings confirmed that the NCTSC default is isolated and will not impact Nassau County’s general creditworthiness. The county maintains an AA rating on its general obligation bonds.

Oof, sounds bad.

How are these bonds related to the equities mentioned earlier?

I guess I could ask AI, but you seem more informed.

Yeah, kids. I know, your grandparents did forbid your parents to smoke so they smoked. Now they want to forbid even lollipop flavored air-smokes for under 5-year olds! Hey, we are a free country!

Even the Marlboro-man would still live with those sweet liquid air thingies!

tobacco companies have to pay ‘compensation’ to states to cover healthcare costs from smoking. they pay a certain amount based on volume of cigarettes sold.

states, decided they wanted jam today, so securitized the payments and issued bonds on the revenue stream.

cigarette volumes down. so compensation down. so bonds are being defaulted on.

not really related to equities other than spotlighting the falling volumes.

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The VT and chill folks will own Space X even sooner than the Nasdaq … only 5 to 10 days of FOMO. :wink:

(Source)

The thread was only provided as an example to indicate that there already exists several threads on ETFs. My humble apologies if I have offended any non US people.

The chips were falling on Friday

Friend of mine told me yesterday that he’d bought a lot of SMH 2 days ago - that’s Wednesday, perfectly timing the top. I told him that I’d been looking at re-entering TQQQ since the buy signal of the 200SMA strat was given but chickened, wanted to “wait a bit for it be confirmed”, once the “bit” passed and it was confirmed I told myself “It’s run up too fast, I’m probably late”. I missed a ~70% by not going in…oh well. As CubanSwissPete tells us, if you have a rules-based strategy you need to follow it!

It’s going to be a weird summer, I won’t put new money in VWRL or anything tech-related, just in boomery CHDVD and CHDVD, want the dust of the exit liquidity IPOs to settle some.

I feel I should have followed this wisdom of “sell in May and go away” :wink:

… and lose that fantastic May performance?

My apologies, I did read only the title of the link.

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Expect the willingness to boldly and brainlessly invest to be outweighed by having no more money to do so.

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I don’t understand :confused:

Plans for replacing the sofa jeopardized. ETD investment has taken a beating. Brokerage recommended it last year as strong buy and is now shouting sell! And to make matters worse it is even getting booted from S&P 600 Small Cap!
What’s going on? Financials IMO look decent or am i missing something?
What is one to do? Sell? Hold my breath? Buy even more? Hold?

I’m doing a shoot for the moon here with Ascelia pharma (ACE.ST) entered at 2.8 SEK. They have their PDUFA date on their drug on the 3th of July with a hopefully positive outcome and subsequently a partnering announcement for the commercialization. I spoke with the COO some weeks ago and she was very enthusiastic about becoming a commercial stage company. This is of course a high risk play with a binary decision with the PDUFA date. My assumption is that a positive outcome would push them into a very strong position to partner up for commercialization.

Not a fundamental or even mechanical approach but we all try to play our strengths here :blush:

It is a time sensitive issue if the little data I get on ACE.ST are correct. They will run out of cash in like 6 months. In such a situation you could work with options as it is an all-or-nothing bet. You lose 100% anyhow but could make more with options. But then it is not a U.S. traded stock, so probably no options available. They lost like half of their value this year, 95% over the last 5 years. In a bull market I would like to see it the other way around. Bottom picking is a lottery with very bad winning chances. You may get cut by a falling knife.

We are in a bull market that runs already over a year, at >95% of last high. My capt’n does not find a lot of stocks to buy in such a market and just tries to keep the leverage low. For me that means leaning back and simply enjoy the gains. And do what I do best as a “Managing Siesta Director”: nothing.

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