25aug2021. I think in the monthly report there is a table. The gambling strategy is usually very active, so it is rare that a stock is allowed to stay that long.
In the dividend strategy I have lots of stocks that I hold already a decade or longer.
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is there a 6 months rule?? 
what exactly does it say?
So one part here is Blue Owl (with around 9% USD divvies still) which might be worth considering. They will probably get paid anyhow, wonât they?
The other one point to mention that is missing are the 10 GAS-POWER PLANTS that Meta is planning to commission and co-own in that Special Venture to power the thing⌠OMG.
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I think bonds can have a tendency to be wildly priced. I saw that Cable One had bonds that were selling at 12c on the dollar, giving an effective yield of 33%! Of course thereâs a lot of risk, but price recovered to something like 40c on the dollar, so you got good yield and triple your money too.
Itâs rule #1 (out of 5) from Kreisschreiben 36:
Die Haltedauer der veräusserten Wertschriften beträgt mindestens 6 Monate.
Youâll find Kreisschreiben 36 at Kreisschreiben zur Direkten Bundessteuer .
Since many retail investors overly fear being classified as a professional investor, let me also add that breaking one rule typically doesnât lead to being classified a a pro.
Let me quote myself from a different forum:
By âthe ruleâ I assume you mean one of the criteria cited in the 2012 Kreisschreiben about potentially being classified as a professional trader if selling securities held for less than 6 months?
I discussed this as recently as this week with a very seasoned colleague of mine whose father happened to be a tax advisor for many decades.
According to this colleague, the Steuerkommissär looks at the collective of your activities to decide whether this is a self-employed task/activity to generate income. The Steuerkommissär will use the criteria cited but its at their discretion to come to a conclusion from an overall impression.
This colleague also guesses that an occational violation of a criteria will be tolerated as long as itâs not evident that you are trying to create income with a violation ⌠and as long as the Steuerkommissär doesnât have a bad day.
This colleague also knows from his father, the tax advisor, that most Steuerkommissäre can be reasoned with.If still in doubt I would recommend that you talk to the tax authority person handling your taxes (theyâre either listed on your previous tax bill or you can call the tax authority and theyâll connect you with âyourâ person or will give you a direct number.
This person is not the Steuerkommissär but they will be able to give you guidance, and Iâm pretty sure if they are in doubt they will doublecheck with an actual Steuerkommissär.To add a tad of personal experience color: I was audited last year by a Steuerkommisär for my 2022 tax returns.* The Steuerkommissär looked in very much detail at all of my trading activities (trades, dividends, etc) and I know I have violated rule 5 (roughly: âderivatives, especially options, can only be used as hedges of existing positionsâ) as since 2020 I do Stillhaltergeschäfte (I have sold Puts both to generate income** as well as to buy stakes in companies). I do try to have only a few Puts on my year end statements to fly below the radar, but I have had short Puts that were clearly not for hedging my positions. Despite those evident violations of rule 5, the Steuerkommissär had no complaints about this.
* Most likely triggered as I (truly) forgot to declare an unverteilte Erbschaft of my wife.
** Slightly orthogonal to the question about whether this makes you a professional investor: as I have also learned very recently on a different thread on this forum, by selling Puts I have not generated income, Iâve only made capital gains. Works for me.
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Big earnings day today: CRM and NVDA.
I fear a potential double-whammy for my SaaS positions: a poor CRM result combined with an excellent NVDA result causing a rotation from SaaS to AI trade.
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âOne manâs fear of volatility is another manâs hope for more red (or green) days in his shopping list.â
â Goofy, anno 2026
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One interesting thing. There was an AI in testing which was getting good results while running fast.
They took the mask off today and it was revealed that the model was made by Z.ai (same responsible for GLM model, which is the one I personally use).
One interesting tidbit was that this was an efficiency optimized model which was approx. half the size of the flagship model and so much cheaper to deploy. Yet the intelligence was similar to the prior version of the flagship model that was out maybe 4 months ago.
The big news they dropped: the huge demand that theyâd been serving at decent speeds the last months: it was running 100% on Chinese chipsâŚ
Oh and it costs $0.02 for weighted average input tokens and $0.25 for output tokens. Compared to Anthropicâs Opus 4.7 $0.93 avg input and $25 output. Thatâs a 50x-100x price difference!
We currently have an âApple-likeâ market where Anthropic and OpenAI take the lionâs share of the market revenue while only processing less than half the tokens.
While there will always be a premium for the best model, the Chinese models are getting better and better and I wonder how much longer this Apple-like structure can last.
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Well, results were good, so sigh of relief as CRM had become my biggest position in the portfolio 
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Someone way smarter than Goofy â I know, low bar â on NVDA:
(Source)
Paint me slighty surprised. Even if Chuck seemed to say the same thing â buy! â in a recent YouTube video.
Goofy is too dumb for this shit. Iâll keep buying the businesses I can half way understand and that are undervalued and that keep growing earnings and that keep raising dividends.
Sounds a little complicated as I write it out, but itâs actually quite simple.
Ironically, NVDA fits the bill, but pays too low of a dividend for me to be interesting. I am a simple mind, I know.
so youâre not in for an 900% in the past 5 years, but you would happily buy it if it paid you 8% dividends? 
Yes, that is what he said, only that probably 3-5% would be enough.
I am not into that kind of investment as I try to buy my ârocketsâ in the first 6 months of action and only if they are still cheap.
NVDA does not look anything like cheap, the PEG number is the only thing looking slightly OK. But then this is probably based on bought growth, so I donât use that number at all.
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@cubanpete already summarized it better than I can. Hereâs what I drafted while he responded:
If I knew in advance for 100% sure NVDA would pay me 900% over the next five years, Iâd probably be tempted to take a position. Sadly, there is no 100% sure guarantee.
If it just paid 3% in dividends and was expected to grow those almost certainly consistently by 10% over the next five to ten years Iâd buy them for (almost) sure. Sadly, analyst foresight does not go that far with any kind of certainty.
Broadcom is my NVDA proxy in my portfolio. I still canât believe they were once undervalued (and now, IMO, overvalued). Sitting tight for now (on Broadcom), call me a market timing criminal. Already sold more than my entry price, as I have for other AI proxies like CMI or IRM, but certainly not buying in at current levels.
Why would I?
To make $500â000 in dividends potentially instead of $150â000?$ Call me a Jason Zweig zealot of his Little Book of Safe Money and its commandments, IIRC the first one is:
Thou shalt not take any risk that could wipe thee out.
In my book, I only need to get rich once. Happy camper with the returns I have. Why risk more? The Joneses next door are ⌠well, I pity them somewhat. Going back to an earlier post by wise @cubanpete that I really embraced, I in the meantime wholeheartily consider this a frame of mine:
Wooden framed and hung on the wall behind my screen where all my transactions and research takes place.
YMMV, of course, as always.
$ Itâs actually a little more given I also onw ETFs that I am rotating out of as we speak.
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Sorry, again I have bad news for my gambling portfolio, I had to charge rent of a beautiful tennant. It is my captain, I cannot do anything. Really, nothing!
Partial sell at 35% gain, welcome to your second year in my portfolio.
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Mutiny? 
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So the company that spun off its international business is making a deal with its old self to save on taxes. What else is new?
Still Atria is one of my best long term divi investments. at over 6%, its paid itself back in more ways than one.
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5 years is a long time?
For the gambling strategy yes, it is a long time. Looking for the quick buck there, most stocks are thrown out after 6-12 months. At the moment they stay relatively long because I hardly find any new stocks to buy. That is normal in a bull market that goes on that long. And I only kick out positions when I find something betterâŚ
Now in the dividend strategy I want to hold as long as possible. Many stocks there are with me since the beginning, over a decade.
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3 months laterâŚ
Polymarket - Itâs not insider trading, itâs offshore gambling!
Lawyers for a Google engineer charged with insider trading on Polymarket have moved to dismiss the charges by arguing, essentially, that his alleged use of internal company information on the popular prediction market site was simply run-of-the-mill offshore gambling and not an act of commodities fraud.
Educative and funny article by FT Alphaville. The issue here is that Polymarket and Kalshi publicly tell âitâs not gambling, itâs binary contracts over outcomes of future events that should be regulated by the CFTCâ. But,the defense of Mr. ___ is telling the opposite: itâs out of the scope of financial regulation because no financial, economic or commercial consequences, itâs only gambling.
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