This one is big - individual, personal batches for every. single. patient.
So far the pharma industry has poured billions into research for a drug that was mass produced at cents per package later. But this new drug says it’s optimalized for everyone individually. Think about batch sizes of dozen pills instead of palettes at once and what will that overhead cost per patient. And who’s gonna buy it if melanoma otherwise is “not so bad” as you said…
Actually it’s big for Merck, as it extends the life of Keytruda, expect they’ll be working on other indications Keytruda has had success in, NSCLC, CRC, RCC, HCC to name a few.
I can’t recall how many indications Keytruda/Opdivo have, 15-20 for either, I’ve worked on 6-7 for one of the two drugs. Pity is BMS missed the chance and Merck holds 2/3 of the market, BMS were the first movers licensing Opdivo from ONO but they stumbled in lung and then it was downhill from there. Still a massively successful drug, and let’s not forget, all of this is good for the patients.
I disagree that it’s a small part of their business, in 2025 Keytruda sold $31.7bn, on a Merck market cap of ~$380bn, this result is a lifeline, and pricing in that they’ll do it for other indications so it keeps on selling. For Moderna this means they can further develop the technology to every tumour they can.
“Better is the enemy of good” we say, not saying that melanoma is solved, but it is indeed in a hugely better state than it was previously.
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7 posts were split to a new topic: How sustainable is Big Pharma industry?
In the latest chapter of “everything Phil sells goes up” after MRK we now have KKR buying UGI.
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Never realized that Sunrise is a non-profit mafia!
My UBER position was doing quite well, but now Cramer put his kiss of death on it: 
A lot of action today in my gambling portfolio. That is hard, months without nothing and then all at once:
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The capt’n seems to want me moving into slave trade. And even with a company that I hold already for my dividend portfolio, Robert Half. OK, so what, now I have a double position, one in each strategy. No risk no fun…
Costamare is with me one year exactly, time for the yearly rent. It is at >40% gain at the moment, partial sell.
Fedex, Xnet and the diworsifying Liberty Energy had to leave my portfolio with 4-10% gain.
It is too early to say, but this could be a sector move. There are not too many companies in the slave trade (employment services), way less than in oil what was my last sector move.
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RHI was one that I had looked at a few months ago too. Like SaaS it had been overly punished on the assumption that AI means fewer workers.
Interesting. I would have guessed that your two strategies are too different to ever include the same company.
Actually they are. That was the first time since 2020 since I run the gambling strategy that happened. I was even thinking about including a new rule. But then there is no need for a new rule and you don’t change the rules of a strategy that brings almost 30% every year without a very good reason.
The other way 'round is already covered as in the dividend strategy there is only half-mechanical stock selection. There are always enough companies to include, so I usually just skip double entries (happened only twice), that is within my rules. I know, it is not consistent, but then the risk profiles of the two strategies are very different.
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Hedge funds lose money in volatile market.
It seems that MRNA jump and Bessent’s intervention caused hedge funds to lose money. I always wondered whether momentum strategies would work in volatile markets but they have done very well in the last years. The article mentions it was the first time in 5 years that a pure momentum index was down more than 4% while the S&P500 was higher on the same day.
I mostly don’t care about the 6 month rule from Kreisschreiben, but for this one stock, AMGN, I wish the rule didn’t exist.
Every time I flip through my portfolio on FASTgraphs I think that for the past 20 years or so you could literally just buy Amgen when it’s below the orange line (15xP/E) and sell it when it’s above. Probably a bit of hindsight/survivorship bias in there, but still …
I last bought it in May, but would like to sell again now. A little too early. Pretty sure the Steuerkommissär wouldn’t classify me as a professional for this one little offense, but better safe than sorry and having to also explain my options trades or so. 
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@Your_Full_Name I saw this infographic on the off-balance sheet funding of AI datacenters:
