While nobody trusts Iran, while inspections took place there was at least a safeguard that even if Iran was trying to cheat, the rest of the world would have some advance warning and a tripwire that could stop Iran racing towards a nuke.
Combined with nuclear permitted nuclear for civilian uses and for US allies nuclear umbrella protection, there was sufficient carrot and stick for countries signing up to NPT and giving up nuclear ambitions.
With very bad examples of Gaddafi and North Korea, the US has completely reversed the incentives for NPT. Now countries see that signing up for NPT gives you no security whereas getting a nuke even if you have to suffer sanctions, guarantees your regime.
On top of that, we see Russia sucessfully deterring NATO with nuclear threats and US cast doubts over whether their nuclear umbrella is reliable.
In this new environment, I see a very strong likelihood of nuclear proliferation.
Up to this point no, not really. They have been toying with Israel and testing the waters. I expected to see a massive coordinated drone and medium range missile attack with the first depleting defensive missiles and the second doing real damage, possibly taking out the Israeli civil and/or military leadership.
But Jerusalem and other Muslim holy sites are very close to those Israeli targets. For Iranian Shiites likely more political than spiritual but …
One thing is reading about this, another thing is watching the effectively empty motorways. Sunday 25 November 1973…damn, it looks like a big party, pass me the bottle!
The oil shock from 1973 - Car free Sundays. Audio in French, subtitles available with auto-translate.
Yes, the Hormuz Strait may be open to navigation at some point, but if the storage and transport infrastructure was bombed to pieces, there’s no oil & gas to transport.
But this is a bit sensationlaist on reddit:
The part that really stands out to me is the forward curve: summer TTF is trading above winter. That is not normal. The market is basically saying storage refill this summer may be more expensive than the heating season itself.
Ukraine March 2022, that looked like the end of the world:
My guess is that higher prices solve scarcity. Gas natural will be more expensive for the chemical industry and building heating here, sorry for the people who cook with gas in Pakistan.
• A Chinese-owned oil and chemicals tanker, the Rich Starry, sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, appearing to defy a US blockade.
• The Rich Starry, owned by Shanghai Xuanrun Shipping Co Ltd, was the first vessel to pass through the chokepoint since the blockade commenced on Monday afternoon.
• Both the tanker and its owner had previously been sanctioned by the US for their dealings with Iran.
• The US had announced its military would block Iranian vessels and any ships that paid tolls to Iran, threatening to eliminate Iranian ‘fast-attack’ naval ships.
• NATO allies, including Britain and France, stated they would not join the blockade, instead advocating for the reopening of the waterway.
Day trip to Milano yesterday. Stopped atthe first gas station for an Apfelschorle. 60 rappen more than the gas station next to my flat and 70 rappen more than cheapest one in Aarau.
