Will we get an energy crunch from the Iran conflict?

Those prices hurt. One thing is having a car for convenience and fun, and a whole different thing is needing the car to move from home to work everyday. From this perspective, Germany is in deep s**t.

PS. Wait a min…V-Power gas is cheaper here.

Less tax!

First there was Covid. Now this. Anything to bring people down to square zero.

The main problem will not only be the cost of filling up the tank. It will be the cost of everything that needs oil to be produced. Plastics, food on the table, transportation costs, farming, fertilizer, just about everything. So expect even more inflation then what Donnie’s tariffs have created.

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Fertilizers are a byproduct of natural gas production.

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Which in turn is a byproduct of oil production.

One possible upside for those with PV roof panels is that the payment for electricity sold to the grid could increase. EKZ (Zurich) now pay a guaranteed CHF0.09 per kWh. The amount is based on market rates, but their charges for supply are annual…

Yes, shooting up here too. Station not to far from us was CHF1.61 a litre for diesel last week. Today it’s up to CHF1.88. Funnily enough though petrol doesn’t seem to have changed price; still at CHF1.59.

Tangentially, measures that would help in case of an energy crunch are taken in Australia. Employees are entitled to work from home 2 days a week. I doubt the motivation is reducing fuel consumption, but even if it’s an unintended consequence, it’s a great consequence.

Back to Switzerland around half of residential buildings still rely on heating oil or natural gas for heating. Not yet at Ukraine 2022 invasion, but almost there. Roughly a 40% increase in price. Winter is ending, so most people may not need to buy right now. By the summer, price should be lower, or deal with a significant increase. I’d think this is just sellers profiting from fear, and the price increase only to be short-lived, but who knows?

Anyone knows how may litres of heating oil are required per person in an apartment building on average? Or how much do you spend at your home per person per year?

EDIT: current apartment building runs with geothermal wells, so the yearly numbers given by the building admin represent electricity. I recycled long ago the papers of the last apartment that relied on heating oil, so no idea.

We fill about 3000L - 4000L per year. I’m guessing they give a cost per 3000L on the left axis as this may be the ‘average’ annual household consumption.

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Thanks. So, during 2024 and 2025 filling the heating oil tank at home was 3’000-3’500 CHF for average family/average single house floor area. Let’s see how winter 2026-2027 goes.

We paid just over 1,5k for 2,000 litres with Migrol oil earlier this year for our house. Heating 2 floors. Tank holds 3,300 litres.

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I’m guessing also houses that heat with oil tend to be older and more inefficient ones (like my house). More modern houses probably don’t use oil heating.

Various reports indicate a 2003 Iraq-scale mobilization is on the way - you’d need a lot of Diesel for that.

If this thing isn’t over soon, oil production in the region will come to a full stop in about a week.

That absolutely will impact supply and price - as most demand is price inelastic.

So glad we don’t have oil heating in the apartment, nor do I drive an ICE car anymore.

Not sure what 150 or 200 USD/b makes fuel prices look like - but it sure ain’t pretty.

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A land attack in Iran would be insane.

Now I feel a bit silly not filling up the oil tank and car ahead of all this mess.

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Not all will suffer or miss the oil

We complain about a 20% increase in price for gasoline. In other places: cuts, halts, shutdowns…

Even the Japanese car industry is in problems because the UAE is a disposal site for used cars, and the Gulf countries buy a lot of new Japanese cars. Supercars may arrive via the Red Sea or even by airplane, but a Toyota Land Cruiser must arrive by the Strait of Hormuz. So, their regular 10 million car sales per year is at risk.

Iran’s Hormuz shutdown disrupts global used-vehicle supplies from Japan

At some point somebody in the US military who is still capable of rational thought will have to pull the plug on Trump and his gang.

Trump fired all of those.

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