14 stocks in common with my dividend portfolio. That is a lot considering that I hold only 26 stocks in that strategy!
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Could LMT really be a golden opportunity?
Sold that one too early at $450 but regret it less than other sales (looking at you GOOG, AVGO, TSM, NVDA).
They’re currently too expensive for me, but I would buy them again when their P/E multiple touches 15 or dips below that.
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I hold LMT since many years in my MOFO-home (dividend) portfolio.
The first quarter had some big investments, I suppose in connection with the U.S. orders. That did result in a FCF payout ratio of over 100%. Therefor LMT is on hold at the moment. I suppose the situation will be better in a few quarters because those investments will add to cash flow.
How-bout this one? Think the price may lift again?
Does not look too bad, but I would wait until it starts to rise. The chart looks more like it could go further down, even the fundamentals look OK.
The monthly chart shows it: either it goes down further, what looks like more probable, or it goes up and if it does it will go up a lot. So I just wait until it starts. Could be a candidate for my gambling strategy, but not yet. If I buy I’ll comment here, promised!
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Next up (in the series of going through my stock picks):
AMCR
Amcor Plc operates as a holding company, which engages in the provision of consumer packaging business. For company profile details see footnote.[1]
FASTgraphs score:
Historical earnings graph, price chart, etc:
Steadily but in the past slowly growing earnings, slow dividend raises but high’ish yield. 5 years of consecutive dividends.
A little high on debt and not as distributed as I like.
But they have a nice triple-B credit rating and their FCF still covers the dividend.
Forward looking earnings chart:
It’s undervalued. If price returns to their normal valuation, I’m looking at a close to 40% total return CAGR. If price stays at its current P/E (which seems more likely), I’ll see about a 15% total return CAGR. I suppose it all depends on how well they’ll steer the ship given their recent acquisition of Berry Global … we’ll see.
AMCR is a hold in my book and a (currently) reliable income provider.
I’d probably upgrade to a buy if their earnings grow as fast as currently expected.
1 Company profile:
Company description:
Amcor Plc operates as a holding company, which engages in the provision of consumer packaging business. It operates through the Flexibles and Rigid Packaging segments. The Flexibles segment develops and supplies flexible packaging globally. The Rigid Plastics segment manufactures rigid plastic containers and related products. The company was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
GICS Information:
Materials >Materials >Containers & Packaging >Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Company website:
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AMKR has a few tiny little markers that my capt’n does not like:
- Almost 2 billion of cash laying around in the coffee cash box does not seem very efficient.
- Last quarter the FCF payout ratio was over 100%. Is unaudited and may have been a one-time problem.
Now how in hell would cash laying around be a problem? OK, it may be a sure dividend. But what for you buy cash just to pay you back cash, charging tax in between? And that much of cash almost always gives bad ideas to management, so I try to avoid such companies. Of course it is worse if there is a too-less-cash problem.
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Wow, a very good stock market April did end. One year after the liberation-day-bear-market such nice values, who would have thought that. All time high today.
My gambling strategy, which is basically momentum, is at an all-time high with a nice 38.66% YTD gain. That lifts the CAGR since 2020 to 31.39%. Only one single trade the whole month, charging the rent to CIB. The rest of the time just leaned back and enjoyed…
I had to take out some money this month, Euros to spend in Spain. Decided to take half from each strategy, so the margin multiplier did get a little higher. It is at 132.25% for the gambling strategy.
Here is the wheel of fortune of the positions:
And the table of tables:
Now the dividend strategy (the MOFO home strategy I call it sometimes) did perform as it should, low volatility and acceptable return.
There were dividends from MRK, HST, O, CSCO and today a really nice one from MO.
Cashed in “market dividends” from CAT and from CMI.
With that money and some debt I bought more of T, F, GIS and then I did open a completely new position in FLO (which is already >13% in the green).
Here is a finviz link to the dividend portfolio.
The carry premium is at 5.15%. The margin multiplier is at 103.98%.
Total performance is at 10.17% YTD, at 11.49% CAGR since 2014 and at 14.61% CAGR since 2020.
And the wheels of fortune for positions, dividends and sectors:
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Nice April performance!
My (dividend) strategy is always mostly up to date and linked at the previous post Simply stock trading - #11 by Phil_MCR.[$]
I’m now at a 9% TWR YTD.
No margin.
Dividends in April: ~$11k
April trades:
- increased IMB (DRIP via corporate action)
- booted ARE
- increased GIS
- increased SJM
- increased PRU
- increased OZK
- increased MAIN (DRIP via corporate action)
- wrote a BOXX secured BIPC 30P OCT
(this trade is outside my dividend strategy)
Expected dividends in May: ~$9k [$$]
$ The Returns tab usually has a lag time of a couple of days until I have updated all dividends that sailed in.
$$ $2.1k already arrived today. 
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I’m still holding on to ARE and can’t figure out what is going wrong there. With the shift to the US for life sciences I was pretty sure that at least this would increase the outlook for ARE, but reality is different 
What has changed for you @Your_Full_Name that you got rid of ARE?
PS: I got a new trigger and started a position in DBS (D05) that looks interesting. I remember them mainly from the skyline of Singapore.
The only SaaS stock I sold was TEAM so obviously that was the one that went up by 30% today. 
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I explained part of my reasoning a little further up. This was a close call (of whether to hold on despite of the dividend cut) but it felt safer to me to replace them with more reliable dividend payers as I am really living off the dividend (vs off total return, which might be more attractive for ARE given a long enough time horizon).
This might be a good example of how investment decisions are probably always best considered on one’s individual framework: for my goals and my ruleset it was better to get rid of them, for yours it might be better to hold on.
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CLX looking more reasonably priced following today’s fall, but still, I never understood how a company selling products like bleach commands a massive PE ratio (>30x during pandemic). If I’m buying bleach, I don’t really care what brand it is.
I did hold Clorox for many years, one of the basic stocks for dividend investors. One of the stocks that did rise during the pandemic.
But then it maybe did rise too much. The free cash flow was less than 3% of the enterprise value. That alone is not enough, but it lost momentum, so I sold my complete position with a nice gain 04feb2025.
Such a situation is handled by the market often by a heavy correction, as happened with Clorox. But then, who knows where the correction stops?
A sign that I’ve been working with computers too long when I couldn’t parse this as anything other than as some kind of truncated hexadecimal hash.
Indeed. It often overshoots to the other side and provides an opportunity to buy.
Sorry, some leftover from when I worked in air transportation some decades ago. In aviation it is the log format for a date without the dash, same in any cultural environment and leaves no space for interpretation while still kind of short. As we are quite international here I thought it would be best. But then the dashes would probably help. That would be 04-FEB-2025.