Will we get an energy crunch from the Iran conflict?

Donny playing his game before the mid term

Of course! He wants to negotiate with Xi from a higher chair of power. Xi is smarter than that…

Well, it looks like prices of LNG are reaching a level which is causing demand destruction in Pakistan:

They are switching to Solar as fast as they can.

Crack spread baby:

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Driving last night I noticed the 95 gasoline at 2.1/litre.

It seems Switzerland faces some particular challenges:

  • The US-Iran conflict as anyone else around the world.
  • The local refinery in Neuchâtel supplying 30% of Swiss demand stops for 2 weeks because unspecified technical breakdown.
  • And the drought makes river transport (Rhine) for fuel challenging. Fuel rerouted to trains/trucks.

So, fuel reserves being used right now.

PS. transporting fuel by train is safe. But, when something goes wrong, it goes really wrong.

Swiss heating oil cost:

2nd airline to go down after higher fuel costs (and other issues).

AirBaltic files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy as Iran war costs bite

Sept 14 (Reuters) - Latvia’s airBaltic voluntarily filed for protection under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code in New York, it said on Monday, as it seeks to restructure its debt pile and survive a deepening sector-wide crisis brought on by the Iran war.

“AirBaltic has been experiencing acute financial stress due to a combination of financial and geopolitical factors,” the airline’s board wrote in a filing with the bankruptcy court.

AirBaltic, which has a fleet of some 50 Airbus A220-300 planes, is majority-owned by the Latvian government, with Lufthansa holding a 10% minority stake.

Other issues: war in Ukraine.

The airline had aimed to grow its fleet to 100 planes, and, according to aviation analyst Simonas Bartkus, was expecting to develop transit traffic from Russia, Belarus and Ukraine through Riga.

“This is no longer available, and the company became too large for its market… The rise in fuel cost made the situation acute, they had no time to find solution,” he said.

Prime Minister Kulbergs wrote in a post on X that by April airBaltic had “burned through” €380 million raised via bonds issued in 2024. A €30 million emergency government loan ran out in June, he added, and the airline had tried to lease out its excess aircraft.

“Serving Baltic and Latvian routes requires only 30 aircraft, not 100,” he wrote.

AirBaltic operates some Swiss short-haul flights (within Europe). It seems having 100 planes instead of 30 motivated them to lease airplanes + crew to Swiss at low prices (Lufthansa hand probably behind this). Anyway, the debt became unsustainable.

Not yet a travel disruption because the airline keeps operating normally during the debt restructuring. But worth keeping an eye a few months down the road.

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The „other“ strait is also closed now: Bab al-Mandab Strait

That’ll be one hell of an expensive Winter coming up.

I am so happy we replaced our electric boiler with a heat pump a few years back. But we do need the electricity to run it.

May finally go for solar panels with a battery…

And Europe still isn’t racing to fill gas storage…

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my guess is that europe will state preferencial treatment from north sea oil … sure, the prices may go up some, but locality will speak loud …

I am guessing they have contingencies in place …

I certainly hope they do!

Why would these companies do that?

A lot of them have contracts with consumers that give those consumers fixed, lower prices.

They wait for the inevitable (nat-gas shortages) to call for a bailout while politicians claim “All is well”.

Just another loot of the tax-payers’s coffers. Add it to the long and ever growing list.

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it is a delicate balance among capitalism, keeping politicians mused and not letting people suffer … these companies can not afford to take the black eyes, piss off politicians … effectively biting off the hand that give them the latitude …

there are and will be options in place … yes, we little people will pick up the tab, somehow or other …

business is war, but it is politics that keep it going, surviving, growing …

it is my belief that Europe, while it may suffer some, will not allow dignity to Trump …

Hope you are right, but in the end money talks.

24 posts were split to a new topic: Car vs Public Transport Convenience vs Cost

Gas prices are not enough to stop cars. My car is 23 years old and yesterday I did cross Spain again for less than 70 Euros (OK, last year it would have been like 35). I don’t like driving, but any combination of public transport (train, bus, airplane) would be way more expensive.

The car is maintained in Spain for 300-400 Euros a year. In Switzerland it would be probably 5-10 times that, but that is a Swiss specific problem.

Cars are way too cheap, especially if you use it often and taking into account external costs.

We as Switzerland are definitely not at the risk of an energy crunch/rationing, we never were - despite the media coverage during the Ukraine war.

Souce: Inside knowledge.

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